Let me be very clear about this, the tax code has never been my favorite subject. In fact, in law school, I grabbed my “Gentleman’s ‘C’” and ran for the hills before my professor had time to reconsider.

However, one does not need to be a tax expert to suspect that the so-called “tax reform” bills trumpeted (pun intended) as middle-class reform measures are yet another example of congressional sleight of hand masquerading as something of real substance.

Proponents claim that most average Americans will see immediate annual tax savings. The estimated amounts vary, but $1,200 annually for a hypothetical family of four is not an unreasonable expectation. Of course, that’s not all Americans. Americans in high tax states might pay higher federal taxes off the bat because of proposed limits on the deductibility of state and local taxes. Most “high tax” states are in the Northeast and West coasts—and most are a deep shade of Democrat blue, so who cares? Elections have consequences after all.

Getting back to the $1,200 initial tax savings, daily, assuming a 365-day year, the average taxpayers filing jointly would save a whopping $3.28 a day in tax liability.

The use of the word “initial” is intentional.

The proposed tax plans, House and Senate versions, provide tax “relief” to both business and individuals. A small detail not often mentioned is that most of the provisions favoring business are permanent. Most of the provisions favoring individuals are temporary for purposes of making these changes possible under the shell game also known as “reconciliation.” Most individual provisions are set to sunset roughly 10 years from now.

Of course, these individual provisions could be made permanent by a future Congress, more than two presidential elections from now, or maybe not, depending on which way the fiscal winds are blowing by 2027.

In addition, most of the tax policy wonks are predicting that the amount saved will shrink over the next several years with the result that in the latter years of the 10-year tax window, most taxpayers will be paying more taxes than they would under present tax provisions.

What average taxpayers get in return for immediate tax savings is the accumulation of up to $1.5 trillion in lost tax revenues over the next 10 years being tacked on to the national debt.

A long-term booming economy over the next 10 years might produce increased tax revenues that will more than make up the anticipated shortfall.

Or maybe not.

Look your children and grandchildren in the eye and decide whether this is a bet you want to make. If things don’t work out, it is they who will be paying the tab after many of us are dead and gone.

These tax proposals being shoved through the Congress – without meaningful debate or examination – aren’t about taxes at all. They are about politics.

The party currently in power, a party that once claimed to be the champion of fiscal responsibility and a bulwark against big-spending do-gooders, is desperate for a win, any win, any way. After a year in control of both the Congress and the White House, there is little to be shown for their stewardship.

The temptation to ram something through is too great. If it can be claimed more money was put into the family wallet in the short term, victory can be declared—and long-term consequences are, well, long down the road.

Moreover, an impatient donor class must be placated. Its members have pumped millions into the political system over the years and are looking for a return on investment in the form of favorable tax treatment. Both the House and Senate bills are weighted in favor of this constituency – making good on years of promises carefully veiled as promises to everyone. After all, who wants to kill the golden goose?

Very few Americans would be opposed to honest tax reform, but the bills currently being promoted in the public forum by political shills fall far below that bar.

Even I, with my “Gentleman’s ‘C,’” can recognize that.