Brace yourself. The circus is coming to town, and not the one with cotton candy and peanuts. It’s the Greatest Show on Earth, the nomination of candidates for the presidency of the United States, and there’s something in it for all ages.
What that “something” is is more elusive.
The last time this circus came in all its glory to Indiana was in 2008 and the Democrats were in the center ring as Hillary and Barack wowed the audience. This time, the center ring belongs to the GOP as Ted and Donald and John vie to capture the hearts and imaginations of the Republican faithful in Hoosierland.
The candidates stand to gain or lose the most. Should The Donald win, odds are he has a much clearer path to a first-ballot win in Cleveland, and the Stop Trump movement will just have to come to terms with reality. Should Ted win, the odds of a second or third ballot convention improve, which is the only hope he has left. Should Governor Kasich win, let’s just say the second coming can’t be too far behind.
For the Indiana GOP, it’s a chance to get a little respect. With a state as red as Indiana, its presence in the Republican column come November is assumed. In a typical election cycle, it’s all over but the shouting by the time our primary comes around in May; with a front-runner who’s hit the magic number, Indiana’s 57 convention delegate votes are really fairly inconsequential. In a hotly contested primary like this one, however, those same votes loom large. Face it, for a perennial wallflower, it is flattering to be wined and dined.
For our governor, it’s a chance for those one-on-one meetings with the big boys that lend him the semblance of being relevant to the process working itself out in his state. Of course, once upon a time, the governor entertained thoughts of being one of those big boys himself, so there is probably more than a little melancholia as he contemplates the self-inflicted wounds that have relegated himself to the political sidelines at the national level (and, potentially, the state level as well.)
For members of the state legislature, it’s a time to lie low and hope no one brings up some of the tone deaf measures they have enacted in the last couple of sessions to placate their far right wing base.
For the national media, it’s a chance to follow the circus from town to town and make patronizing comments about the freshly scrubbed, corn-fed residents chowing down before the cameras in some quaint small town eatery. It will be an opportunity to brush up on Hoosier Hysteria, and the state’s love affair with the Indy 500 and all things automotive. For the more industrious, it’s a chance to go find some derelict manufacturing facility and bemoan the loss of factory jobs with appropriate gravity. For the less industrious, there is always holding court at St. Elmo’s (be sure to try the shrimp cocktail with the hot sauce).
For the local media, there is the chance to rub elbows with the blessed few who have made it to the top of the profession. For a special few, there is the joy of being labeled a “local expert” and getting 10 seconds of national air time before reverting to the reality of an ordinary existence.
And what about the folks who theoretically are the reason for the circus coming to town in the first place? What’s in it for the voters?
Surprisingly little.
When the thousands of votes are counted, you would assume that the state’s delegates to the national convention would reflect the wishes of those whose candidate won the primary. So sorry. Those delegates have already been chosen, not by the voters, but by party officials in advance of the election itself. Are they bound to vote for the winner of the Indiana Republican primary?
Kind of.
On the first ballot.
After that, they can vote for whichever nominee they choose. That subsequent vote might still reflect the will of the voters, but maybe not.
The circus has a lot to do with illusion. Perhaps the saddest illusion of all is that it’s all about the voters, when it’s really all about the circus itself.